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If you have been keeping an eye on your super balance over the last calendar year you would have seen that the news seems to have been spot on.  It was not a good year for super.  This is on top of what has been a rather bad few years for super since the Global Financial Crisis. 

We would like to think that this year will likely be a better year than 2011. 2011 was characterised by a number of natural disasters (floods in Australia, earthquakes in Japan and NZ) and we were smashed around by politics on both side of the Atlantic. Not to mention the constant fear of a US double dip.  

The problems are likely to continue for the year ahead and Europe will remain a cause of angst for the market – as we’ve just seen with S&P’s downgrade of 9 European nations and renewed market turmoil over Greece. But otherwise, for 2012 to be like 2011 you need to think that we will be hit by a similar number of events and events of a similar magnitude.  

Europe would actually need to implode, and I think the market’s comparatively muted reaction to S&P’s downgrade shows this. Talking about it is no longer good enough to illicit market carnage it seems. While it could happen - it’s not improbable - on the balance of probability it is unlikely, and we’ve seen significant steps toward a stabilisation in Europe following the ECB’s 1st 3yr LTRO and moves to cheapen USD through FX swap lines. Similarly, fears of a US double dip have receded markedly given the recent data flow. Consequently we’ve seen an easing in some leading market stress indicators. 

What this means is that we remain fairly confident that we should see a good year ahead.  But not a great one.   

However, there are no guarantees with any predictions.  What we are recommending is that if you have any concerns about the year ahead and what to do, book an appointment to discuss options that will make you feel better about the year ahead.

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